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OK0NAG > SOLAR 22.12.17 14:31l 133 Lines 4621 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Fri, 22 Dec 2017 12:30:14 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
:Issued: 2017 Dec 22 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU356
UGEOA 30512 71222 1230/ 9930/
10222 21222 30222
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 22 Dec 2017 until 24 Dec
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 023
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 031
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with the only region on disk (Catania group
67, NOAA active region 2692) producing several B flares. The strongest
a
B7.2 flare peaking at 1:50UT.
As the region develops with flux emerging in the leading part, chances
for
possible C flaring are increasing but are still low.
A long filament located near the centre of the disk seems to have erupted
just before midnight. A possibly associated weak CME is visible in
SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images from 2:48 UT onwards. It is directed
towards the South West and has an angular extent of less than 90 degrees.
This is not expected to influence Earth.
Proton flux levels are at background values and are expected to remain
so.
Solar wind was nominal with solar wind speed decreasing further from near
400 km/s to around 320 km/s and total magnetic field in the 2-5nT range.
Solar wind conditions are likely to increase over the next 24-48 hours
with
an expected sector boundary crossing and an increase in solar wind speed.
While solar wind speed increase may initially be limited, the trailing
part
of the previously elongated coronal hole, that now seems to have become
detached, is expected to increase Solar wind conditions more seriously
from
around noon December 23 onwards.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 0-1).
They are expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels but increasing
towards noon December 23 when active periods and possibly minor storms
become possible under the influence of the anticipated high speed stream.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 025, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71222 1230/ 21///
1//// 20760 3002/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71222 1230/ 22/10 22101
10067 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50140 60017 12418 02000
99999
USSPS 31405 22101 02732 67014 12418 24417
USSPS 21305 20156 01632 89007 15016 11306
USSPS 81202 21013 01722 84008 14519 11307
UMAGF 30503 71222 1004/ 21067 1/004 21110 30000
UMAGF 31523 71222 0000/ 21007 1/002 21011 31100
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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