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CX2SA > SWPC 22.03.15 00:23l 63 Lines 2335 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17440_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150321/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17440 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17440_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Mar 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
21/0809Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Mar,
23 Mar, 24 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 728 km/s at 21/1256Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/2100Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/0437Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19857
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (22 Mar, 23
Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 114
Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 21 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 017/020-016/020-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/20
Minor Storm 25/25/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/60/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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