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VK2AAB > ENERGY 22.03.15 03:14l 29 Lines 1474 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 36526_VK2IO
Read: GUEST
Subj: Re: Solar & Wind not enough
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<F1OYP<HR1PAQ<CX2SA<VK2DOT<VK2TGB<
VK2IO
Sent: 150322/0204Z @:VK2IO.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:36526 [Castle Hill] FBB7.00i
From: VK2AAB@VK2IO.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : ENERGY@WW
Hi there Warren, LTNS.
You asked what happened to peak oil.
Well it is history now. Peak Oil occurred in in November or December 2005.
The International Energy Authority says it was 2006.
Anyway because it occurred the price went up over US$100 and made the tight shale oil economic.
However as we have seen the high priced oil crashed the economies and led to the current glut
which crashed the price.
This is exactly what the oil field engineers predicted. We are now in the second
volatile price cycle and the major question now is will there be a third cycle.
It could be that if the answer is no then the price will rise again but the tight shale oil may not
come back in any magnitude.
That will make it a new game altogether. Our situation here is very risky and fragile.
We import 95% petrol & diesel, soon to be 100% and the political answer is
"We have good commercial arrangements !".
That shows how stupid politicians are.
I agree Warren, we havn't seen nothing yet.
As soon as the tight shale oil in the US confirms that it has peaked and the reality sinks in
there will be a panic in certain quarters.
We though that the tight shale in the US would give 10 years to adapt to the new reality but
it was just wasted. Conventional oil has been declining at about 4% a year and that
decline will now be exposed by the decline in tight oil.
So hane on Warren, it will be an interesting ride.
73 Barry VK2AAB
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