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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.01.18 14:34l 128 Lines 4467 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
Date: Mon, 1 Jan 2018 12:30:14 GMT
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU001
UGEOA 30512 80101 1230/ 9930/
10012 21012 30012
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 01 Jan 2018 until 03 Jan
2018
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Jan 2018 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jan 2018 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2018 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 007
COMMENT: The solar activity was quiet over the past 24 hours. The visible
solar disc is spotless and no C-class flare has been recorded. Quiet
flaring conditions are expected for the next 24-hour period.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater
than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.
The solar wind measurements indicated the onset of a Corotating Interaction
Region announcing the soon arrival of the high speed solar wind stream
(HSS) associated with the Coronal Hole (which has crossed the central
meridian on Dec 28. The wind speed shows a gradual increase from the
nominal values (around 350 km/s) to the current values ranging from 450
to
470 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field has shown a sudden increased
on
Dec 31 around 18:00 UT due to the arrival of a Corotating Interaction
Region, magnetic field magnitude was fluctuating between 9 and 12 nT and
the Bz component between -11 and 10 nT. The enhanced solar wind conditions
are expected to persist until while under the influence of the HSS
associated with the coronal hole.
Disturbed geomagnetic conditions were observed due to the enhanced
conditions of the solar wind: NOAA reported a minor storm (Kp=4) at 3:00
UT
on Jan 01, while Dourbes stations observed unsettle conditions (with K=3
at
03:00 UT on Jan 01). As enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to
persist, further minor to moderate geomagnetic storms cannot be excluded,
especially if Bz component remains negative for long period of time.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : ///, BASED ON /// STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 80101 1230/ 31///
1//// 20710 3004/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 80101 1230/ ///// /////
99999
UMAGF 30503 80101 1004/ 31066 1/013 20111 32233
UMAGF 31523 80101 0000/ 31002 1/004 21001 30123
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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