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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.01.18 23:58l 112 Lines 4040 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly SILSO report: International Sunspot Number and forecasts
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Subject: Monthly SILSO report: International Sunspot Number and forecasts
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Date: Mon, 1 Jan 2018 21:54:08 GMT
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:Issued: 2018 Jan 01 09:33 UTC
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#-------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY TABLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL TOTAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# AND 12-MONTH PREDICTIONS from the World Data Center SILSO #
#-------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
December 2017 : 8.2 (eight point two)
Maximum : 30 on 24 // Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 13, 14, 15, 16,
17, 18, 28, 29, 30
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for December 2017 :
1.. 0 6.. 13 11.. 12 16.. 0 21.. 20 26.. 16 31.. 13
2.. 0 7.. 11 12.. 13 17.. 0 22.. 26 27.. 13
3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 26 28.. 0
4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 11 24.. 30 29.. 0
5.. 0 10.. 11 15.. 0 20.. 13 25.. 25 30.. 0
71 cooperating stations on January 1, 10 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for June 2017 : 22.3 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2017 Jul 22 21 2018 Jan 17 12 2018 Jul 8 7
Aug 22 20 Feb 16 11 Aug 7 7
Sep 21 17 Mar 15 10 Sep 5 6
Oct 20 16 Apr 13 9 Oct 4 6
Nov 20 16 May 12 8 Nov 3 5
Dec 19 16 Jun 10 8 Dec 3 4
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
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