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W7EES > SWPC 07.01.18 22:16l 44 Lines 1510 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1657_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180106/0132Z 1657@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 410 km/s at 04/2101Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (07 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 069
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 069/069/068
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/005-008/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/35
Major-severe storm 10/20/40
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