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W7EES > SWPC 08.01.18 19:46l 46 Lines 1611 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1659_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180108/1612Z 1659@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 305 km/s at 07/1627Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/1751Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/1702Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (09 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 070
Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 07 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/15
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