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CX2SA > SWPC 09.01.18 00:26l 60 Lines 2114 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 31863_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180108/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:31863 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:31863_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 08/2051Z. Total IMF reached 20
nT at 08/1226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
08/1233Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet levels on
days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 070
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 008/010-006/006-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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