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W7EES > SWPC 13.01.18 22:51l 44 Lines 1481 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1673_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU3DVN<LU4ECL<N0KFQ<NS2B<N9PMO<GB7YEW<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 180112/1044Z 1673@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 429 km/s at 10/2122Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Jan) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 071
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 005/005-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/20
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/45/30
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