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CX2SA > SWPC 18.01.18 00:23l 58 Lines 2077 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 32783_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180117/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:32783 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:32783_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 358 km/s at 17/1148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 071
Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 17 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 005/005-007/008-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/35
Minor Storm 01/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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