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CX2SA > SWPC 19.01.18 00:23l 60 Lines 2182 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 32869_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180118/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:32869 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:32869_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 509 km/s at 17/2329Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/2154Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
18/1724Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jan), quiet to active
levels on day two (20 Jan) and unsettled levels on day three (21 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 071
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 007/008-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/25
Minor Storm 05/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/45/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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