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CX2SA > SWPC 26.03.15 00:26l 63 Lines 2358 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17746_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 150325/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17746 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17746_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
25/0446Z from Region 2305 (S08E19). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar,
28 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
608 km/s at 25/1521Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/1202Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0929Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4999 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (27 Mar) and active to minor storm levels on day three (28 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 138
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 008/015/025
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 007/008-011/015-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/40
Minor Storm 01/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/35/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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