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CX2SA > SWPC 25.01.18 00:24l 60 Lines 2143 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 33405_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180124/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:33405 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:33405_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 23/2131Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 24/1637Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
24/1535Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1043 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jan,
26 Jan, 27 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 070
Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 008/005-007/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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