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CX2SA > SWPC 27.03.15 01:00l 63 Lines 2331 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17786_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 150326/2249Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17786 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17786_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Mar 26 2230 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/0021Z from Region 2305 (S08E05). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar,
29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 570 km/s at
26/0135Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1135Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3959 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Mar) and active to minor
storm levels on days two and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 136
Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 26 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 011/015-017/025-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/40
Minor Storm 05/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/60/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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