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W7EES > SWPC 27.01.18 17:33l 48 Lines 1685 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1714_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180127/0021Z 1714@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 26/1325Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/0420Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
26/0235Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (27 Jan, 29
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (28 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 070
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 008/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/15/20
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