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W7EES > SWPC 28.01.18 18:49l 47 Lines 1684 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1717_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<N6RME<N0KFQ<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180128/0045Z 1717@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 26/2129Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 26/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/1126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 348 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 069
Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 27 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 006/005-007/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/20/25
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