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W7EES > SWPC 05.02.18 01:25l 49 Lines 1682 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1736_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<WA7V<CX2SA<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<VA3HRA<KE0GB<KM8V<GB7YEW<
N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180204/2215Z 1736@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/2024Z from Region 2699 (S04E74). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 389 km/s at 04/2028Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
04/1900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/1709Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 073
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/15
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