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CX2SA > SWPC 29.03.15 00:25l 64 Lines 2378 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17972_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<IW7BFZ<I3XTY<I0OJJ<N6RME<CX2SA
Sent: 150328/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17972 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17972_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Mar 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
28/1607Z from Region 2303 (N18W78). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar,
31 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
440 km/s at 28/0650Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/1954Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/0542Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1221 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (29 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (31 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Mar 146
Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 28 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 017/022-012/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor Storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/35/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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