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OK0NAG > SOLAR 12.02.18 15:15l 130 Lines 4614 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2018 13:04:24 GMT
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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To: solar@eu
:Issued: 2018 Feb 12 1304 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU043
UGEOA 30512 80212 1304/ 9930/
11122 21122 30122
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 12 Feb 2018 until 14 Feb
2018
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 005
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest
flare was a C1.5 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2699 (Mcintosh class:Dai;
Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, showing considerable flux emergence
and cancellation, producing the C1.5-class flare, which peaked at 01:35
UT
this morning (12-feb-2018). The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained
at
background levels over the past 24 hours. Observations of coronal dimmings
and EUV waves from EUV imagery yesterday at 20:40 UT (11-Feb-2018) and
today at 01:41 UT suggests AR 2699 produced a couple of eruptions.
Coronagraph imagery is currently unavailable to estimate the extent of
any
associated CMEs, and estimate a possible arrival time, but the source
region is located near disk centre and any associated eruption may interact
with the Earth. AR 2699 is expected to produce further flares and
eruptions.
The solar wind speed has increased from around 300 to 325 km/s over the
past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 5
nT.
The Bz component was largely positive, fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT.
Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index
0-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A small positive polarity coronal
hole passed the central meridian a couple of days ago and may enhance solar
wind speeds over the coming days. Evidence of a small eruption that
occurred near disk centre this morning may indicate an eruption will
enhance geomagnetic conditions in a few days. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 027, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 80212 1304/ 11///
1//// 20780 3002/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 80212 1304/ 12/09 12101
10072 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50220 60011 31707 15100
99999
USSPS 31405 12090 02122 72022 31707 24411
USSPS 21305 10205 04822 03024 20308 37527 04001 33511 0/101
UMAGF 30503 80212 1004/ 11060 1/005 21111 30001
UMAGF 31523 80212 0000/ 11006 1/002 21001 31100
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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