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OK0NAG > SOLAR 13.02.18 14:50l 127 Lines 4341 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
To: solar@eu
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Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2018 12:30:17 GMT
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
:Issued: 2018 Feb 13 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU044
UGEOA 30512 80213 1230/ 9930/
11132 21132 30132
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 13 Feb 2018 until 15 Feb
2018
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 022
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant
flares have been recorded. Active Region (AR) 2699 (Mcintosh class:Dai;
Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, showing considerable flux emergence
and cancellation. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background
levels over the past 24 hours. A halo CME was observed in the SOHO/LASCO
C2
field of view at 01:25 UT yesterday (2018-Feb-12). The CME has a projected
speed of approximately 509 km/s and is anticipated to reach the Earth on
15-Feb-2018 at approximately 12:00 UT. Over the next 24 hours flaring
activity is expected to be at the C-class level with a medium probability
of M-class flares.
The solar wind speed has decreased from around 325 to 300 km/s over the
past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 5
nT.
The Bz component was largely positive, fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT.
Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index
0-2 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A large positive polarity coronal
hole just passed the central meridian and may enhance solar wind speeds
at
Earth in a couple of days. The above mentioned halo CME should reach the
Earth around 15-Feb-2018 at approximately 12:00 UT and may also enhance
solar wind conditions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet
to
unsettled.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 026, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 80213 1230/ 12///
10021 20790 3004/ 4//// 80001 90220
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 80213 1230/ 12/09 13101
10072 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50220 60011 31707 15100
99999
USSPS 32404 11147 02432 05023 30908 27514
UMAGF 30503 80213 1004/ 12063 1/006 21110 32101
UMAGF 31523 80213 0000/ 12002 1/004 20111 31031
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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