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OK0NAG > SOLAR 14.02.18 13:31l 125 Lines 4372 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
To: solar@eu
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Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2018 12:30:17 GMT
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU045
UGEOA 30512 80214 1230/ 9930/
10142 21142 30142
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 14 Feb 2018 until 16 Feb
2018
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 013
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant
flares have been recorded. Active Region (AR) 2699 (Mcintosh class:Dsi;
Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, showing considerable flux emergence
and cancellation. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background
levels over the past 24 hours. A halo CME was observed in the SOHO/LASCO
C2
field of view at 01:25 UT on 2018-Feb-12. The CME has a projected speed
of
approximately 509 km/s and is anticipated to reach the Earth on 15-Feb-2018
at approximately 12:00 UT. Over the next 24 hours flaring activity is
expected to be at the C-class level with a medium probability of M-class
flares.
The solar wind speed fluctuated around 325 km/s over the past 24 hours.
The
total magnetic field strength has remained around 5 nT. The Bz component
was largely positive, fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions ranged between Kp index 0-1 (NOAA) and local K index 0-2
(Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A large positive polarity coronal hole
just passed the central meridian and may enhance solar wind speeds at Earth
in a couple of days. The above mentioned halo CME should reach the Earth
around 15-Feb-2018 and may also enhance solar wind conditions. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 023, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 80214 1230/ 13///
1//// 20760 3003/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 80214 1230/ 12/09 14101
10072 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50220 60011 31707 16100
99999
USSPS 21305 12163 02332 03025 32306 34513
USSPS 32404 12107 03232 05023 31908 27422
USSPS 31405 12090 02122 72022 31707 24411
UMAGF 30503 80214 1004/ 13062 1/006 21110 30210
UMAGF 31523 80214 0000/ 13001 1/003 20111 31112
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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