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W7EES > SWPC 14.02.18 18:56l 49 Lines 1778 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1821_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180213/2358Z 1821@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (14 Feb, 15 Feb) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 337 km/s at 13/1820Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/2018Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Feb), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (15 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (16 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 076
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 076/075/074
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 009/012-020/028-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/35
Minor Storm 15/30/25
Major-severe storm 01/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 45/60/55
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