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OK0NAG > SOLAR 15.02.18 18:27l 83 Lines 2507 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Weekly Forecasts Bulletin
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Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2018 17:21:25 +0100
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Solar activity forecast for the period February 16 - February 22, 2018
Activity level: mostly very low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A2.5-A7.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 69-77 f.u.
Events: class C (0-1/period), class M (0/period), class X (0/period), proton
(0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-25
Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 16 - February 22,
2018
Quiet: Feb 20 - 21
Unsettled: Feb 16 - 20, 21 - 22
Active: Feb 16 - 17
Minor storm: possible Feb 16
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
We expect the active episode during the nearest three days. Because of
the
last CME, we expect geomagnetic activity increase from currently quiet
condition to active level.
Sunday, February 18, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to unsettled
level. The unsettled level should persist to February 20 when the local
field can decrease to quiet to unsettled level. The last days, we expect
unsettled conditions return.
Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 16 - March 15, 2018
Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on February 26, March 10
mostly quiet on February 19, 24 - 25, March 1 - 3, 11 - 13
quiet to unsettled on February 20 - 23, March 5 - 8, 14
quiet to active on February 17, 27 - 28, March 9, 15
active to disturbed on February 16, (18, March 4)
Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on February 19, further development can not be predicted.
Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts are even less reliable.
F. K. Janda, OK1HH
(from Czech Propagation Interested Group
compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since 1978).
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
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