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W7EES > SWPC 17.02.18 18:35l 48 Lines 1683 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1924_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<N9PMO<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180216/2316Z 1924@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.14
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (17 Feb, 18
Feb) and expected to be very low on day three (19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 16/2010Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 16/0527Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
16/0855Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 072
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 011/014-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/30/20
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