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OK0NAG > SOLAR 21.02.18 14:35l 130 Lines 4314 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2018 12:30:16 GMT
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2018 Feb 21 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU052
UGEOA 30512 80221 1230/ 9930/
10212 21212 30212
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 21 Feb 2018 until 23 Feb
2018
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Feb 2018 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 015
COMMENT: There are no sunspot regions on the visible hemisphere of the
Sun
and flaring level is very low. The chance for a C flare in the next 24
hours is estimated at 5%.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.
The solar wind density (recorded by DSCOVR) started rising at 03:50 UT
on
February 21, followed by a rise in the magnitude of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) from 2 to 9 nT at 05:20 UT. The solar wind speed
increased from about 350 to 400 km/s at 07:25 UT. These signs are
indicative of a Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) leading a High Speed
Stream (HSS) associated with the negative polarity southern polar coronal
hole that passed the central meridian a couple of days ago. The IMF was
mainly directed towards the Sun and Bz was below -5 nT most of the time
between 07:30 and 08:30 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to be enhanced
on February 21, 22 and 23, with speeds probably exceeding 500 km/s.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between
0
and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to active levels (K
Dourbes < 5) are expected on February 21, 22 and 23, with a slight chance
for minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 80221 1230/ 20///
10000 20680 3005/ 4//// 80000 90000
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 80221 1230/ ///// /////
99999
USSPS 31405 21090 00032
UMAGF 30503 80221 1004/ 20062 1/006 21112 31000
UMAGF 31523 80221 0000/ 20005 1/005 23011 32210
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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