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CX2SA > SWPC 22.02.18 00:23l 60 Lines 2129 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 35987_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180221/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:35987 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:35987_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 461 km/s at 20/2139Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
21/0745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/0746Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7036 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Feb,
23 Feb, 24 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 068
Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 21 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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