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OK0NAG > SOLAR 22.02.18 17:40l 87 Lines 2663 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Weekly Forecasts Bulletin
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To: solar@eu
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2018 15:14:26 +0100
Subject: Weekly Forecasts Bulletin
Solar activity forecast for the period February 23 - March 1, 2018
Activity level: mostly very low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A2.0-A6.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 67-75 f.u.
Events: class C (0/period), class M (0/period), class X (0/period), proton
(0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-25
Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 23 - March 1, 2018
Quiet: Feb 24, 26 - 28, Mar 01
Unsettled: Feb 23, 25 - 28
Active: Feb 25, 28
Minor storm: 0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
At the Budkov observatory, the last active episode (K-index 4) had been
recorded at Monday, February 19.
Next week, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease with at most quiet
conditions with two or three unsettled intermissions. Unlikely, the
unsettled intermissions predicted to February 23, 25 and 28 can unlikely
reach the active level (K=4). Nevertheless, we expect quiet to unsettled
conditions without storming events.
Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 23 - March 20, 2018
Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on February 25 - 26, March 1, 6, 10, 12 - 13, 19 - 20,
mostly quiet on February 27, March 2, 7, 11,
quiet to unsettled on February 23 - 24, March 3, 5, 8, 15 - 16,
quiet to active on February 28, March 4, 9, 17 - 18,
active to disturbed on March 14.
Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes: can not be predicted
for the period until March 10, but I do not expect any significant upsurge.
Then solar wind will intensify on March 18 - 20.
Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts remains less reliable
especially in the first half of March.
F. K. Janda, OK1HH
(from Czech Propagation Interested Group
compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since 1978).
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
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