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CX2SA > SWPC 24.02.18 00:22l 60 Lines 2184 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 36156_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180223/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:36156 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:36156_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 23/1825Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 23/0641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 23/0526Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1971 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 068
Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 23 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 009/010-011/014-018/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor Storm 10/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/50/65
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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