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CX2SA > SWPC 31.03.15 00:24l 63 Lines 2274 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18071_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 150330/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18071 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18071_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Mar 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
30/0152Z from Region 2303 (N18W0*). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (31 Mar) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (01 Apr,
02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 388 km/s at
30/0253Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0126Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01
Apr, 02 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M 15/25/25
Class X 01/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 134
Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 135/145/150
90 Day Mean 30 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 013/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 30/30/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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