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CX2SA > SWPC 01.04.15 00:57l 63 Lines 2403 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18153_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IV3ONZ<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 150331/2249Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18153 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18153_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Mar 31 2230 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
30/2205Z from Region 2303 (N18W0*). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on day one (01 Apr) and expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
446 km/s at 31/1413Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 31/1320Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 31/1034Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 560 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Apr, 02 Apr) and
unsettled to active levels on day three (03 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 128
Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 130/140/145
90 Day Mean 31 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 010/012-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/35
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/20/25
Major-severe storm 35/10/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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