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W7EES > SWPC 06.03.18 23:04l 46 Lines 1585 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2030_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<N9PMO<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180306/0024Z 2030@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.15
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 400 km/s at 05/1831Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
05/0153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
05/0508Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (08 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 068
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/20
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