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W7EES > SWPC 07.03.18 20:48l 46 Lines 1585 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2034_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<N6RME<N0KFQ<AB0AF<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180306/2219Z 2034@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.15
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 434 km/s at 06/2057Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
06/1422Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
06/1453Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 068
Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 06 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 006/005-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/25/45
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