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W7EES > SWPC 11.03.18 00:46l 49 Lines 1682 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2078_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<N9PMO<KB8OAK<N9LCF<KC8KPM<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 180310/2223Z 2078@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.15
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 09/2227Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 10/1540Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
10/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 165 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Mar) and quiet levels on
days two and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 068
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 012/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 45/10/10
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