| |
W7EES > SWPC 18.03.18 20:16l 47 Lines 1698 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2378_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180317/0107Z 2378@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.15
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 15/2208Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 16/1755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 16/1606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 13732 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Mar, 18 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 069
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 013/015-013/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/20
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
