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CX2SA > SWPC 21.03.18 00:23l 61 Lines 2213 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38203_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180320/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:38203 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:38203_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 19/2222Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 20/1610Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/1752Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 21043 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Mar), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (22 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (23 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 069
Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 20 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 013/016-016/020-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/35
Minor Storm 15/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/55/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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