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CX2SA > SWPC 24.03.18 00:23l 60 Lines 2180 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 38493_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180323/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:38493 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:38493_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 23/1550Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 22/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
22/2117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11186 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (24 Mar, 25
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 068
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 017/025-020/025-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 55/55/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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