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W7EES > SWPC 26.03.18 22:14l 48 Lines 1710 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2775_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180325/2211Z 2775@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.15
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 25/0041Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 25/0820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/2124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (27 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (28 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 068
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 013/018-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 45/20/10
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