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CX2SA > SWPC 16.04.18 00:26l 61 Lines 2158 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40283_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180415/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40283 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40283_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 567 km/s at 15/2026Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
15/0840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/2342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 8310 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 071
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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