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CX2SA > SWPC 06.04.15 00:23l 62 Lines 2321 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18452_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150405/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18452 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18452_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
05/0007Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Apr,
07 Apr, 08 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
606 km/s at 05/0626Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2356Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/2046Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 297 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 122
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 120/125/125
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 007/008-009/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/35
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/35/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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