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W7EES > SWPC 23.04.18 02:17l 52 Lines 1677 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3334_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<GB7YEW<AB0AF<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180422/2302Z 3334@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr,
24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 584 km/s at 21/2348Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
22/1129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
22/1214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 24055 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 076
Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 22 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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