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W7EES > SWPC 30.04.18 20:19l 51 Lines 1641 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3414_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<GB7YEW<KM8V<KQ0I<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180430/1028Z 3414@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 404 km/s at 28/2143Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
29/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1250 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02
May).
III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 071
Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 070/070/068
90 Day Mean 29 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/10/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/15
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