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W7EES > SWPC 01.05.18 02:06l 52 Lines 1655 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3448_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<SR4BBX<SR1BSZ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE<GB7YEW<AB0AF<KF5JRV<
NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180430/2301Z 3448@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 30/1135Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 30/0214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
30/0120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1265 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03
May).
III. Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 070
Predicted 01 May-03 May 070/069/068
90 Day Mean 30 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/05
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/15/10
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