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W7EES > SWPC 02.05.18 02:19l 49 Lines 1638 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3462_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<AB0AF<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180501/2255Z 3462@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 453 km/s at 01/1145Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
30/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
01/0713Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 775 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04
May).
III. Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 068
Predicted 02 May-04 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 01 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 010/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/10/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/15
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