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CX2SA > SWPC 06.05.18 00:30l 61 Lines 2226 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41834_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180505/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:41834 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:41834_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
May, 07 May, 08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 638 km/s at 05/2053Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 05/1400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 05/1429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 594 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (06 May, 07
May) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 May).
III. Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 068
Predicted 06 May-08 May 068/069/069
90 Day Mean 05 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 019/024-014/020-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/55/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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