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W7EES > SWPC 07.05.18 19:27l 51 Lines 1754 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3509_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<OK0NBR<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N9PMO<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180507/0120Z 3509@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
May, 08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 717 km/s at 06/1219Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 05/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 05/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 8170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 May) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).
III. Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 067
Predicted 07 May-09 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 06 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 012/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 021/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 014/020-014/016-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/35
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 55/40/40
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