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W7EES > SWPC 08.05.18 20:33l 50 Lines 1742 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3519_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VE2JOS<N9LCF<K9BIF<KB8OAK<KE0GB<NS2B<
N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180507/2313Z 3519@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 714 km/s at 07/0051Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 06/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 07/0309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 24933 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (08 May, 09 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 May).
III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 070
Predicted 08 May-10 May 070/071/071
90 Day Mean 07 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 024/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 014/016-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor Storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/40/30
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