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W7EES > SWPC 10.05.18 00:30l 51 Lines 1789 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3540_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<OK0NBR<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<XE1FH<LU9DCE<GB7YEW<KM8V<
N9LCF<K9BIF<KC8KPM<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180508/2230Z 3540@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (09 May) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 743 km/s at 08/2048Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 08/0358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
08/0420Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 26784 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (10 May) and quiet levels on day three (11 May).
III. Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 070
Predicted 09 May-11 May 070/070/069
90 Day Mean 08 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 011/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/15
Minor Storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/15
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