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CX2SA > SWPC 15.05.18 00:31l 60 Lines 2160 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42531_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180514/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:42531 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42531_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 465 km/s at 13/2144Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/0046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16341 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 May, 16 May) and unsettled
to minor storm levels on day three (17 May).
III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 070
Predicted 15 May-17 May 070/071/071
90 Day Mean 14 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 006/005-005/005-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/40
Minor Storm 01/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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