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W7EES > SWPC 17.05.18 02:12l 49 Lines 1725 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3607_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180516/2310Z 3607@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 369 km/s at 15/2127Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
16/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/2036Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15763 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 May), unsettled
to active levels on day two (18 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (19 May).
III. Event probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 070
Predicted 17 May-19 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 16 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 013/018-011/014-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 60/50/35
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