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W7EES > SWPC 18.05.18 02:12l 50 Lines 1718 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3621_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE<GB7YEW<N9PMO<KB8OAK<K9BIF<N9PXO<KC8KPM<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 180517/2310Z 3621@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 17/1931Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 17/1019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
17/1010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 12809 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 May) and quiet levels on day three (20 May).
III. Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 069
Predicted 18 May-20 May 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 17 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 40/25/10
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